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Project duration: 01/01/1997 – 31/10/1999
Report date: August 2000
Project funded by the European Commission under the
Transport RTD Programme of the 4th Framework Programme
FANTASIE constitutes a merger of tasks 27 and 28 of the 2nd Call in the 4th Framework RTD Programme.
Several documents with the status "public" have been subsequently made available via the project homepage, which is accessible at
www.etsu.com/fantasie/fantasie.htm
The project FANTASIE ("Forecasting and Assessment of New Technologies and Transport Systems and their Impacts on the Environment") aimed to identify new technologies and lines of technological development which can be expected to affect European transport systems in line with the objectives of the Common Transport Policy (CTP).
FANTASIE was derived from the need for European level Technology Assessment (TA) and Technology Forecasting (TF) activities. National activities in some EU member states are relatively well developed, but a Europe-wide perspective that takes account of regional differences and the CTP objectives does not yet exist.
Technology is an important factor in the performance of transport systems. Speed, comfort, safety and environmental impacts, all are determined by the technology applied. The FANTASIE project tried to identify those technologies which could improve such impacts. Secondly it was the objective to develop policy options to stimulate the "most desirable" technologies. Nevertheless it must be recognised that technology is not a goal in itself, it functions within and is dependant upon organisational frameworks, demand, regulation, etc.
The key objectives of FANTASIE have been:
The FANTASIE approach, which centres around an extensive data collection integrated and evaluated by the team together with experts, stakeholders and policy-makers, was developed according to the following structure:
The methodology was to build the specific assessments where feasible by a bottom-up approach from lower levels up to higher levels (TCs and transport system). This was followed by a review aimed at identifying critical elements at lower levels which contribute significantly to the impacts. The approach makes it possible to provide at the end, in suitable output formats, the information on TCs and technologies that promise to be most important for improving the future performance of transport systems.
The specific assessments follow a base framework which addresses the different TCs in a given problem area for the four time horizons (1995 base, 2005 short run, 2020 medium run, 2030 long run) in the four scenarios. The TC assessments start with an analysis of different categories of impact, and identify the impact determinants and expected impact signs and levels. This was based on a structured analysis of results from earlier FANTASIE work. In a subsequent stage the FANTASIE partners developed their overall assessment. The assessment includes a descriptive part and a quantitative stage based on the development of impact profiles. An impact profile is the impact level according to either a conventional numerical scale or a quantitative physical measure, over the FANTASIE time frame in a given scenario. The impact profile methodology can be applied to any impact category and allows for a concise and diagrammatic format of results presentation. The internal TC assessments were complemented by expert external review.
The integration of the specific assessments has provided a selection of the most promising and robust TCs and technologies. The integration included an analysis in four stages on a problem area basis plus a complementary analysis, in parallel, on technology and cross cutting issues. The first stage of the main analysis was aimed at assessing TC market shares. The second stage provided the impact assessment at transport system level for each problem area. The third stage aimed at identifying problems and opportunities arising from developments in the EU transport system. In the fourth stage, TCs, vehicle concepts and technology options which are expected to make a significant contribution to the policy problem or benefit have been highlighted.
An initial assessment of potential technological developments which are significant in terms of the objectives of the Common Transport Policy (CTP) has been provided. It was based on authoritative and independent review documents, rather than specialised and potentially biased reports on particular technologies. Much of the available information is at the level of technology applications - this was complemented later in FANTASIE by assessment work at the level of transport concepts and systems.
Information has been organised according to groups and bundles - propulsion systems, vehicle design, materials, information interface, and infrastructure - of technologies, and assessed using a policy-oriented framework of issues.
Findings on vehicle concepts which are expected to have major significance for future European transport to the year 2030 have been presented. It was based on substantial contacts with external contacts, especially within the vehicle supply industries and vehicle operators, together with documentary research. It identifies the outlook for market penetration by different vehicle technologies, key consequences (environmental, safety, efficiency and socio-economic) and any policy implications.
An attempt has been made to determine the extent to which transport concepts and systems could be used in the future. First, Europe-wide workshops defined (new) integrated transport systems based on the preferences of users. Based on existing knowledge, other DG TREN (DG VII) projects and previous studies, a demand assessment was then performed for all transport concepts. The future is uncertain and to deal with this, the forecasts were based on four possible future scenarios. Each of these scenarios is predicated upon two groups of variables: economic dynamism (a society is either characterised by high or moderate economic growth) and the importance of sustainability (a society either attempts to pursue an environmentally sustainable path; or does not).
For the scenarios this means that several different economic growth figures are assumed. The scenarios characterised by high economic growth are associated with a greater growth in transport demand, whereas in the sustainable scenarios a de-coupling of economic growth and transport demand occurs.
Demand forecasts have been made using elements of both aggregate and disaggregate approaches. The aggregate part is based on the past relationship between income and transport demand, as well as views of how this might develop over the next 30 years. In practice this means the use of vehicle and transport concepts, which are subdivided between passenger and freight transport and assessed for different market segments. A second aspect of the disaggregate approach is that total transport demand is not assessed for the E.U. as a whole; it is based at a national level. As a final step, the demand assessment was systematically reviewed by European experts and up-dated.
Following an extensive assessment of technologies highlighted in the survey and forecast phase, a smaller set of technologies with key impacts in the areas safety, environment, efficiency and socio-economics has been identified.
Fuel cell (methanol reformer, multi-fuel, direct methanol, depot reformation); hybrid propulsion; advanced conventional propulsion; advanced diesel; tiltrotor; electric and hybrid systems; defrosting/de-icing systems for aircraft; lightweight materials and structures; and improved aircraft engines.
Combined on-board emissions and engine management; multi-modal traveller information/trip planning; dynamic route planning; in-vehicle traffic information; electronic tolling; navigation; traffic control; parking management; automated driverless transport; anti-collision systems; smart card; drive-by-wire; vision enhancement; autonomous intelligent cruise control; fleet management; integration of information technologies with GNSS; rail traffic management for long-distance passenger and freight; lane keeping; and driver monitoring.
Multi-modal traveller information/trip planning; parking management; fleet management; unitised packaging systems; transferia; cargo handling; automation, disposition & control technologies (I&C); transhipment (incl. terminals); and container (in combination with I&C).
Many new technologies have positive or negative impacts simultaneously for more than one assessment area and with a great variety of impact areas. Hence a synthesis was done to highlight only the most important impacts.
The dimensions of this neutral assessment view are:
There are only few technologies having key positive impacts in more than one specific assessment area but others often serve many vehicle and transport concepts with a medium to high market share.
Fuel cell technologies are expected to be significant in almost all scenarios and with many different vehicle and transport technologies. They are expected to have the most positive impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and air quality, and will deliver improvements to nuisance (mainly urban traffic noise).
Fuel cells are expected to show a 50% improvement in fuel efficiency in 2030 compared to conventional petrol in 1995. Fuel cell technologies still require a lot of R&D to become more economically viable, and to guarantee equity in transport access.
For all scenarios an increase of construction costs is expected, in particular as regards the alternative propulsion systems. For all alternative propulsion systems a cost reduction is possible if considerable R&D investment are made in order to solve the technical and organisational problems related to the implementations of such technologies and their widespread diffusion on the market. Nevertheless, without financial incentives the cost for the user of such vehicles will remain consistently higher.
After the assessment a final forecast was performed and a forecasting process was developed to provide projections of the future market shares of passenger and freight TCs in the different problem areas based on a model of users' preferences. Both the urban and interurban areas have been addressed for passengers. The interurban area has been addressed for freight.
Policy options can be generic, trying to improve the conditions for innovations or specific to support certain selected technologies. Some experts on technology policy prefer generic policy options because they create an environment in which barriers have been removed and innovation is more rewarding. However, the realisation of specific technologies often require changes in legislation and regulation. Generic policy measures are not sufficient and specific barriers have to be removed. In most cases, specific technology policy implies that a government chooses a technology and, at the same time, may neglect other competing technologies.
Therefore, generic policy options should be considered in all cases, such as:
This is an important factor in the innovation process. The optimal use of standardisation is still a subject of further investigation, e.g. the best timing and co-operation with other countries. Active European involvement in international standardisation is necessary.
Next to the existing European R&D programmes, one could think of other ways to stimulate R&D by giving financial incentives for innovation that is initiated by the private sector.
Specific options based on selected technologies and a focus of attention for the EU can be clustered in certain policy packages, i.e. sets of measures aimed at the introduction of selected technologies in specific sub-domains of transport, such as:
The most important and promising technologies that emerged from a large-scale technology assessment are for the majority already subjects of attention in the European policy context. That means that the technology assessment supports to a great extent the main existing European policy lines, but shifts the emphasis in terms of the most promising technologies to focus on, and the types of policy roles to adopt. An important result of the study is the concentration on a limited number of technologies. Of course, the result of the selection process has partly a transient character, since in technology - and especially in information technology - changes come very quickly. This indicates that the validity of the current assessment results will need to be updated after some years.
The European policy packages address problem areas that have already attracted the attention of European policy makers. However, the focus on the most important technologies within these areas can help make existing policy programmes more effective in terms of their impact during the innovation process. By enabling the definition of clearer objectives and roles that are compatible with the innovation phase of a promising technology, the co-ordination of policy programmes (transport, technology, energy, etc.) should become easier.
The FANTASIE project has mainly followed a bottom up approach for technology assessment in order to suggest technologies to policy. However, government also needs to select the best role for policy in a contingent way and to change roles if the conditions, e.g. the phase of the innovation process, require it. This flexibility in terms of policy roles is crucial to ensure the continuity of policy involvement during the most critical phases of the innovation process and to avoid R&D projects ending without tangible change in the transport system. The FANTASIE studies also confirmed that innovation policy needs to incorporate a strategy for the diffusion phase of a technology and the phasing out of policy support.
The FANTASIE project has been very broad: it dealt with all modes and all possible technological innovations. Furthermore, the active involvement of stakeholders and users of the transport system has been limited. Therefore the character of the policy options coming out of this project is still generic and for specific technologies rather superficial. Suggesting detailed policy strategies for individual technologies and packages would require a more detailed analysis first. Nevertheless, a number of generic recommendations can be drawn for European innovation policy in the transport field. First of all, practical policy measures on a European scale have to match national actions and the interests of trade and industry, and policy push and market pull have to be co-ordinated. That means that European and national policy makers, stakeholders from trade and industry and users should co-operate in an interactive constructive process to develop effective policy measures.
Secondly, these measures should first of all be aimed at the realisation of policy goals with technological means, where for most transport concepts the choice of the most appropriate technology should be left to the market, the technology providers and users. A top-down choice of a winning technology often leads to sub-optimal solutions. However, in cases where market forces are not likely to deliver socially desirable solutions, it may be necessary to implement targeted, but clearly limited support action to overcome such social dilemmas. In other words, an important objective of innovation policy is to make sure that a variegated portfolio of technology options is kept under development in order to be prepared for changing context conditions, as reflected in the study's scenarios. The recent development of oil prices shows how important it is to have options available that may not be advanced further by industrial research due to their uncertain perspectives.
In both these respects, the development of efficient and effective interactive processes on a European scale in which stakeholders and users are involved is crucial, thus representing one of the challenges for a European technology policy for transport.
© 2000 European Commission, DG TREN. By courtesy of the FANTASIE consortium.
For further information on publicly available project results please visit the FANTASIE website !
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